Berlusconi sentenced, what future for Italy?

Strange but true, the SIlvio Berlusconi’s Supreme Court sentence will have a greater relapse to  Left rather than the Right side. In fact, no matter that  this sentence is the ‘Gunfight at the O.K. Corral‘ that Italians wait by 20 years in a collective perception of Politics.
A simplified world like a Spaghetti Western, an universe where the bad guys are always morally inferior: ugly, rude, corrupt, incompetent, ridiculous, infidels. And the good boys are distinguishable for their moral superiority: storyteller and soberly trendy, high laureate, perfect at home and at work.

So wee expect, in next mounthes, the theme of an ‘opaque Enrico Letta’ allied with the bad guys (PDL and UDC), repeated in meetings, marches, strikes and scandals until November, when the convention of the Democratic Party will have to settle ‘inner aspects’ about real estate and financial interests, lobbying, factionisms, immobility and adventurism, political expectations of the different electoral bases.

Matteo Renzi, despite having a good following of experts and technicians, may be ‘light’, if the Right wing will begin to attack him or CGIL and the extreme Left will emit a ‘fatwa’ in name of ‘starvation of the people ‘?
Who weighs more? The traditional electorate, octogenarian and tipycally resindent in the Apenninic Regions? The public agencies, the health lobby and the  ‘justice machine’, the controllers of State holdings? Or will it better to return to the mediation and Walter Veltroni’s ‘moderate’ majority?
And La Repubblica – the newspaper deus ex machina of the Left – will be not able to be decisive for the balance of the party?

If the Left, predictably, will thread into the dynamic pre-congress – and in the debate pro-M5S and pro-extreme Left wing – more is going to change in the center-Right, with the departure of Silvio Berlusconi, that this judgment determines.

In fact, the major companies of ‘Made in Italy ‘ are now globalized and respond to not only to national interests, the Italian capital is restructuring, as evidenced by the various shareholders’ agreements broken in last months at the level of Mediobanca, and the situation of Unicredit Bank is very complex, because in Rome more than 30% of the Italian mortgages are filed with compromised Real Estate market.
At the same time, the pontificate of Pope Francis appears firmly addressed to safeguard the interests of Vatican and ‘not only’ those of ‘financially active’ Bishops. A Pope coming from Argentina with a clear and populist vision of the relationships between power and citizens.

It is not unlikely that, having the time, the PDL evolve / dissolve in key liberal-populist and this is the main reason why the tsunami ‘judgment Berlusconi’ could hit in a more eye-catching and dramatic Democratic Party, making hasty and fueling the shaking inside frantic thrusts.

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Alfa Romeo goes America … Maybe

After the statements of Sergio Marchionne (Chrysler-Fiat) that “it is impossible to make industry in Italy,”  the Italian Minister of Labour Enrico Giovannini replies: “I do not agree. There are many companies in these conditions are continuing to invest, to grow, to create profits and jobs. ”
In fact, investiments in the ‘Made in Italy’ can be convenient for the foreign holding companies that are buying ‘the jewels of crown’, but – as confirmed by datas – in the agribusiness and clothing sectors only, where the black economy thrives under all latitudes.

Fiat (Fabbrica Italiana Automobili Torino) is something other, something more … like Chrysler.

Meanwhile, Chrysler has to deal with the unions, in Italy as in the U.S..
In the first case, we speak of the right – granted by magistrates – to block a factory organizing a limited strike by a low represented worker’s organization.  In the second, the price to be paid to the pension fund Veba –  held by the U.S. Unions – for a share of Chrysler, which was worth zero dollars on the day before the arrival of Marchionne and for which, today, they pretend billions.

Concerning Italy, the story is unsolvable, since it would be necessary to intervene in one of the inextricable skeins of our ‘good’ Constitution (trade unions and due process). Looking to the U.S., we are talking about a liquidation, that’s all.

Going to Alfa Romeo, the revitalization projects announced by the CEO of Fiat Sergio Marchionne will reach, by 2016, the production/sold target of 300,000 units in the face of just 100,000, as today.
An Alfa market relatively strong in Europe, with 90% of sales, but with huge potential for growth in the Americas and in Asia, where, today,  the sales amount is of 10,000 cars, but, tomorrow, it will be able to count on the entire Chrysler-Fiat distribution chain  .

A real mirage for Italy, where, in the face of a clear constitutional mandate – that delegate to the Parliament on formulating an appropriate standard for workers organizations – there are not punctual references to legislate urgently, but we can find ‘multiple judgments of the Constitutional Court which clarified that the representativeness of a trade union are determined by a number of elements also circumstantial evidence, not only by the number of subscribers, preferences in the election  rather than in the referendum approbation of a national collective agreement.
With sentence no. 30/1995, the Court stated that “the more representative responds to a criterion of meritocracy and the reasonable need […] to converge more favorable conditions or means of operational support to those organizations that are better able to protect the interests of workers. ‘ (Source Wikipedia)

The Italian Constitution states that union representation is governed by a specific law, that Italians were not able to give themselves in more than 50 years, with abnormal results, affecting the basic interests of both employees and employers.
An army of trade unionists in each public administrations – particularly in schools where it is possibile to find a trade union representative every 15-20 employees – with the possibility, in private companies, to block an entire factory at work, even launching a strike without even having signed the contract and while the biggest part of workers does not participate.

In fact, Sergio Marchionne and Fiat has been seeking that the Italian government goes ‘to introduce a law” on the workers representation going  out of this time of uncertainty. We have urged the government to introduce measures that will remedy this void, but for now we do not see anything.’

How, on the other hand, can Italian Representatives in the Parliament feel free to promulgate a regulation that implements ‘that line of the Constitution’, for which they already know there is obligation – in a democratic country, it should be noted – to “converge more favorable conditions or means of operational support to those organizations that are better able to protect the interests of workers “…

Of course, if the state of art will remain the same, an entrepreneur, who does not want to invest in temporary /seasonal work or in subsidies-public procurements, has not great certainties in Italy, either on enterprise governance nor in public system reliability nor, let us remember, in (heavy) taxation.

Also because – became free by the obsolete Italian Machine – Fiat halves losses in Europe and began to take off in Asia, is stable in South America, and North America sales are solid, with revenues up more than 42 billions. ‘The automotive group by Turin has completed the second quarter of the year with net profit of 435 million, nearly doubling if compared to € 239 millions in the April-June period of last year. Also in the second quarter, revenues grew by 4% to 22.3 billions.’ (Corsera)

Given that luxury brands (Ferrari and Maserati) gave a flattering +14% and it is expected they continue to grow, where Alfa Romeo will produce 300,000 cars to be sold in 2016?

In Italy? Are we really sure?

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