Italy with a new parliament: what about the risk of instability?

When the politicians promises are addressed to the voters waving rights / duties, ie principles that refer to philosophy, the disaster is announced. Concrete solutions can only be achieved by taking into account also economy and technics: the triumph of politics is assured only if voters and elected recall that to link them is the desire for well-being, based on common sense for the common good of any well administred community.

Yesterday the European Commission chaired by Valdis Dombrovskis announced that it is ready to receive a Economic Financial Paper (DEF) from Italy based on “a scenario with unchanged policies”, as happened in other countries that needed time to form a new executive after the elections.

Three weeks ago, our Parliamentary Budget Office in the last Focus on public finance announced that, “as in the past year, in the European surveillance area, the request for corrective measures that bring the balance back to a level consistent with compliance with the rules “.

In other words, the reality is in two chances: or the actual but residual Gentiloni’s government issues a “no policy change DEF” (since it can not do otherwise, being interim), but this DEF will have to be voted by a parliament where M5S and Lega they have a narrow relative majority, or a new government is formed quickly and has already a shared plan of structural reforms (at least three-year terms) for Italy, that is impossible.

Meanwhile, according to the numbers (Italian and international) and as Dombrovskis predicts, “there are still challenges to be faced”: in Italy we see that growth remains substantially below the EU average, low productivity (that is the cost of labor and services) is holding back growth, the high level of public debt persists and questions remain on the banks, in particular the high stock of impaired loans (Npl), which – apart from the financial exposure and the credit crunch – is tantamount to talking about the efficiency of the PA and the usual and notorius speculators.

It is, therefore, a very bad premise that – not even 24 hours after the European notice – Di Maio announce that the DEF “must be approved by an absolute majority of Parliament, so the Movement will be decisive. This will be an opportunity to find convergences on issues with other political forces. We are already working on a proposal that we will make known in the coming days ».

The M5S economic policy project seems to point to a profoundly modify of the national financial planning of the next three years with the support Lega and other right wing parties, BEFORE any government is installed, transferring items of expenditure from one chapter to another, without have time to accurately verify neither the application regulations nor the actual costs nor – at least – which expenses would be cut and with which consequences for all.

By the way, if no government were to be formed after this ‘shot’ and this  parliament will ‘self-dismiss’ to go to new elections, Italy would end up having to live for months and years with incomplete rules, untold rights and duties, costs and budgets out of control, a restless public opinion.

What would happen if – without a government that would follow with its own decrees and without even agreeing with the trade unions and companies – it is approved ‘on paper’ the minimum wage for those 2.5 million workers among employees, quasi-subordinate and self-employed people who are paid at levels below the contractual minimum and below the poverty thresholds?

And, without a government and without unequivocal accounts, how would the revaluation of the contributory pensions promised by the Lega as the Movimento Cinque Stelle under the heading ‘abolishing Fornero’: the start of a bankruptcy process for our public insurance sistem and its privatization?

We do not risk default, because we have an “adequate repayment capacity” as the rating agencies call it, but different Administrations (even Regions or Comuni ones) could end up in bankruptcy, while public payments would slow down with an increase in undeclared debt, if we shall go in search of the fortune to then stop at the edge of the abyss as happened in Greece.

Since we are talking about a hundred billion in total and a good share of Italians, apart the markets, our spread and Eurozone, Mattarella’s appeal to the leaders arrives punctually: “We still have and we will always have need a sense of responsibility to be able to place the general interest of the country and its citizens at the center”.

In fact, since February 26, our stock indices are going wrong: the FTSEMib has lost more than 3.5%, as the FTSE Italy Mid Cap (-3.09%) and the FTSE Italy STAR (-3 , 55%), while the friction of the military situation in the Mediterranean area is well known to all and it also announced the US-EU commercial war with Italy that exports goods to the United States for over 36 billion euro.

Italy is running the risk to replicate the Greek disaster of the first government of Alexis Tsipras, which lasted the time of a budget six months after starting off with populist ambitions.
By the way, Tsipras today rules again, but he carries out a policy of rigor, with a heavy economic plan to reduce public debt through significant cuts in spending, transfers of public assets and new taxes.

Demata

Why America should be wary of Matteo Renzi?

Matteo Renzi goes America to have dinner with Mr. President Barack Obama. An important event for Italian and American Democrats. But what United States have to earn?

At first, it should be remembered that Matteo Renzi became premier thanks to a reinforced majority in the House done by a unconstitutional law, and thanks to his appointment by the President of the Republic, a former communist who cheered for the Soviet invasion of Hungary in 1956 .
The mayor of a little  as famous town (Florence) appointed by the first offical of the republic to manage Italian politics, because without a legitimate parliament and without a law to vote for him.
He should have to be a receiver, not more.

About the reforms that Obama appreciates, Americans need to know that:

• debt and public deficits have increased despite the Austerithy
• the European Union and national Istitute of statistics (ISTAT) recently showed that the initial successes of Renzi derived from interventions introduced by Mario Monti and Enrico Letta
• the aids to companies for the crisis and the resumption as the ‘bailouts’ are in fact went to local banks and investors in Dem’s constituencies
• the government does not reimburse more than 30 billion dollars of which it is liable to the institute pensions, of which at least half confirmed by the Accounting Court
  the State administers the pension funds of the workers, so by six years the Italian Democrats are delaying retirement of 1952-1963 borns
• the same national institute (INPS) which manages the pension annuity for workers on behalf of the State, is also in charge of the investigation and control of the requirements of the disabled, as it must also provide for the welfare and care of the indigents (over six million)
• those who have worked 41 years and earn more than $ 2,000 each month must give up almost half of the annuity or wait up to the age of 67 y.o.
  millions of rare disease carriers renounce therapies because the bureaucracy of the mandatory public (called ‘universal’) system
• millions of chronically ill people have to struggle for years to get drugs and disability or subsidies
• physicians require more resources to emergency rooms and hospitalizations
• in Italy costs for state.towards families who choose a not-statal school are prohibited
• statal schools do not have enough teachers and in the last three years standards have not improved
• Rome was delivered to the brink of bankruptcy by the Democrats to the new Mayor
• the recent earthquake in Amatrice (over 200 deaths) proved tragically as laws and funding for anti-seismic buildings remain wastepaper
• Matteo Renzi’s constitutional reform envisages that the majority ‘disciplines /schools’ the opposition
• Matteo Renzi’s electoral reform envisages a ballotage with the winner that doubles the deputies and the opposition will have the sits behalved.

Furthermore,

• not few Democrats are involved in corruption and embezzlement scandals and arrests
• in Rome, the Democrats have collected less than 10% of the votes of members voting
• in Italy the Democrats collect less than 25% of the votes of members voting.

Remebered the former communist president who appointed Matteo Renzi as Prime Minister, do not forget that the Italian Democrats are the heirs of the Italian Communist Party and of the populist Christian Democracy Party in turn heirs of the core of former fascist popular consensus.

Is there anything better than Matteo Renzi in Italy? Maybe yes maybe not.
It just depends on whether or not you want to try to search and support him/her or not.

Demata

STOP Islamic State

 

Demata

 

Viral Mario Monti and the Italian state of health

It’s became viral the stolen image of the rich leftist senator Mario Monti crouched on the stairs of a hospital while waiting.

But viral often rhymes with banal …

Our media there are very well managed to NOT notice that :

• the privacy on health of a citizen has been violated due to a photo taken in a hospital and shared by media
• it is not a popular imagination that the queues in hospitals are abnormal , that the reception is poor and that the ‘ paper ‘ still prevails on modern technology, though – water bottle in hand – a known septuagenarian is there, sitting on a step like a beggar, putting order in his things
• to sit on the stairs is a violation of the rules for safety and the prevention of accidents, but no matter
• this service ‘of choice’ is normal for a man who should ‘save Italy’ as believed in Europe.

What’s about Italian healthcare … is that stair … all OK?

Demata