The United States and the United Kingdom are ‘ready to attack within ten days’, but Moscow warns on a ‘new Iraqi adventure’ and that “the consequences would be very serious”.” Assad, the Syrian president, promises: “They expect failure.” According to the Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail, the decision will be taken “within 48 hours” after the yesterday’s lengthy consultation meeting between Barack Obama and David Cameron.
The White House denies, but the French president, Hollande, indirectly confirms ‘it will be decided within the next week’ and the BBC reported that the British Foreign Secretary, William Hague, believes that a response to the use of chemical weapons by the Syrian regime would be possible without the unanimous support of the Security Council of the United Nations.
Meanwhile, the UN inspectors are looking for traces of nerve gas used against the insurgents in the oasis of Ghouta in Syria, while tens of thousands of Syrian Kurds and Palestinian refugees are joining those who seek to leave the country by all means.
The locations of military forces in the area is high and the risk of escalation is substantial.
The Royal Navy provides a massive naval presence including a nuclear-powered submarine, the aircraft carrier HMS Illustriuos, the helicopter carrier HMS Bulwark and at least 4 frigates, as well as air cover is guaranteed by the RAF base at Akrotiri in Cyprus.
In addition to the presence of the Sixth Fleet in the Mediterranean and the rapid intervention force deployed in Sicily and some squadrons in the Incirilik air base in Izmir -Turkey, to which we could add the F-16 fighters deployed in Jordan, the U.S. has placed near Syrian coasts at least four of Arleigh Burke class destroyers.
These destroyers are armed with 96 Tomahawk cruise missiles, effective for targets up to 2,500 km away, but, above all, with AEGIS systems, an electronic warfare, capable of integrating the various subsystems, reacting the ship in the presence of surface, aerial and underwater threats.
Italy has in Lebanon the Cavalry Brigade “Pozzuolo del Friuli”, deployed for Operation Leonte, commissioned by the Prodi government in 2006. France has a substantial terrestrial presence (including 16 Leclerc heavy tanks and ALAT, a light aviation support) and in 2006 had moved Siroco and Mistral amphibious ships and the frigates Jean Bart and Jean de Vienne. Germany has about 200 men, mostly workers in logistics and intelligence, and two patrol ships.
Russia has sent in its historic naval base of Tartus, toward the Syrian border with Lebanon and in the face of Cyprus, a dozen vessels at least, according to the Wall Street Journal, while Russian civilians in Syria are estimated at 30,000 people according to the Financial Times, but it is supposed they are more than 50.000.
Among these ships, there is the team led by the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, which carries the multirole advanced fighters Su-33 and Ka-27, Ka-28, Ka-29, Ka-32 attack helicopters. It is equipped with the Granit anti-ship system, an ultra-modern electronic warfare technology and Kortik Klinok anti-aircraft systems, plus UDAV that offers protection against submarines. In Tartus facilities it was dispatched also the presence of Ropucha class amphibious assault ships – the Aleksandr Otrakovskiy, the Georgiy Pobedonosets and the Kondopoga – with hundreds of Marines on board, and a task force that includes the anti-submarine destroyer Admiral Panteleyev, the frigate Yaroslav Mudry, other huge amphibious assault ships – the Peresvet, the Kaliningrad, the Alexander Shablinaltre and the Admiral Nevelskoi, plus several vessels equipped for electronic warfare as Slava class missile cruisers, as Tango and Kilo classes submarines, as Grisha or Dergach classes corvettes.
Not far there is also the entire Black Sea Fleet, stationed in the Black Sea and, in particular, as rapid response, the 25th Regiment equipped with at least twenty Ka-27 and Mi-14 helicopters, the 917th Airborne Regiment and the 43rd Squadron with Su-24M and Su-24MR 4 aircrafts.
The Russian Defense Minister, on Pravda, said recently that Russia does not intend to withdraw one man from the base of Tartus, which is its only option in the Mediterranean and this explains Moscow’s position regarding Syria and reveals the fear of being undermined by its outpost, in case of a fall of Assad.
Considering also that Russia has invested heavily in recent years on its fleet and tools for electronic warfare, motivation seems not just obvious, but broadly plausible, in view of the delicate international balance.
The Izvetzia today published a lengthy interview with Syrian President Assad (link), which has denied the use of chemical weapons and accused Saudi Arabia and the Wahhabis to encourage and finance the insurgents. In addition, “all the contracts concluded with Russia are have been fulfilled. And neither the crisis, nor pressure from the U.S., Europe and the Gulf states have prevented their implementation. Russia supplies Syria what what it requires for its defense, and for the defense of its people.
Several states who oppose the Syrian people have inflicted serious damage upon our economy, primarily due to the economic blockade, because of which we now suffer. Russia acted quite differently.
The current economic sanctions are preventing Syrian citizens from receiving food, medicine and fuel. These are basic products needed for living. And, accordingly, what the Syrian government is doing now by signing agreements with Russia and other friendly countries allows us to establish guarantees for these products.
When national security is weakened, this results in a weakening of the economic position. And it goes without saying that the fact that Russia supplies Syria’s military contracts will lead to an improvement of the economic situation in Syria.
Russia’s support for our right to assert our own independence right from the start has helped our economy. Several states who oppose the Syrian people have inflicted serious damage upon our economy, primarily due to the economic blockade, because of which we now suffer. Russia acted quite differently.
And specifically addressing the economy – any line of credit from a friendly country such as Russia, is beneficial for both sides. For Russia that may mean expanding markets and new opportunities for Russian companies, while for Syria it is an opportunity to raise funds to develop its own economy.‘
If this is the opininion of ‘the other side’, the announcement of the White House to ‘stay studying the Kosovo model’ leaves really perplexed, because we are talking – today – of the ‘black hole’ of all black trades located in the middle of the Balkans, as well the ethnic massacres were perpetrated even by the ‘goods’.
Among other things, Syria has an army of around 300,000 soldiers, over 350 different MIG fighters, even recently updated, and 70 Sukoi for ground attack, hundreds of attack helicopters, a dozen Osa class missile patrol boats, at least 2,000 anti-aircraft vehicles and over 4,000 anti-aircraft shoulder-missiles, fifty rockets and tactical ballistic missiles (Frog, Scud and OTR-21 Tochka classes), thousands of pieces of artillery and multiple rocket launchers, nearly five thousand T54/55, T62 and T72 class tanks of Russian production.
The risk of a new Iraqi disaster is obvious. And this time, it could happens on the outskirts of Jerusalem and in the face of Cyprus.
In Syria the problem triggering the conflict is given by the onset of the Sunni classes against the Alawite minority who has always supported the Assad family. But … we know ‘how’ certain moralizing movements goes as prove in Egypt with the white coup of Morsi and Brothers Muslims and the subseguent militar reaction.
Syria is bordered by Iraq, not yet at peace, by Lebanon, which shows a large presence of UNIFIL ‘interim’ armies, by Israel, which does not look kindly on “the crusaders in the Holy Land ‘, by Turkey, where Erdogan is pushing for a confessional state, by Jordan, where the impact of refugees and the Palestinian tensions are already alarming and where in the last months European Union has sent a team of the European Civil Protection Mechanism.
The war in Iraq against the dictator Saddam Hussein turned out to be a disaster for the Iraqi people, a good deal for the U.S. and British oil companies, a rich take over for a some of the many billionaires sheikhs that Saudi Arabia gives birth, an oxygen tank for Wall Street and the Western occupation during a decade.
Syria had in 2010 a GDP of about $ 60 billion, has an oil production of 522,700 b / d, compared with a consumption of 265,000 b / d, a good industrial presence. Economic development has been hindered by the ‘non-aligned’ placement of Syria on the Iraqi question, which affects trade with Western countries. The increase of commodity prices in global markets have led to a sharp increase in the rate of inflation and unemployment.
After the disaster of Iraq, the endless war in Afghanistan, the chaos of Libya, the military dictatorship in Egypt, the paralysis of Lebanon and Jordan, the risk is of another mess realized by Britain and the United States, because they fail to understand (and correctly manage) those territories and cultures – as it is now evident – since the days of Lawrence of Arabia and the failed Anglo-Afghan Wars, after the heavy conseguences of disjointing Otoman Turkey, Italian Two Sicilies and Spanish Catalonia in the Mediterranean Sea.
A Mediterranean area on which darken dark clouds are coming, not only for the North African instability or for the Israeli-Palestinian issue, but also for the interference of Saudi Arabia and its ability to make pressure on Wall Street and London.
And, maybe, for the old habit of the United States Presidents to wage war somewhere else when things do not go well in homeland for the faction they belong.
Meanwhile, China People’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi reminds Barack Obama can not afford to wage war on the basis of false accusations, as it happened with G. W. Bush, stating that “all nations should handle the issue of chemical weapons with caution, to avoid interfering in the general effort to solve the Syrian issue through a political solution.”
originale postato su demata